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Risk Assessment North Coast Java

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Coastal flood risk is increasing globally (Nicholls et al. 2007, Hallegatte et al. 2013). In many South East Asian countries, such as Indonesia, the population is expanding and people are moving to megacities in low-lying coastal zones, thereby largely increasing exposure of people and assets (Yeung 2001, Small and Nicholls 2003). In addition, hazards, such as sea level rise and storminess, can become more extreme as a result of climate change and anthropogenic influences that cause land subsidence and ecosystem deterioration (Yeung 2001, Milly, Wetherald et al. 2002, Nicholls 2004, Knutson, McBride et al. 2010, Hanson, Nicholls et al. 2011). These trends affect vulnerability of coastal communities through endangering food and water security, but also jeopardize future economic development of Asian countries.

More than 140 million people live on the island of Java, Indonesia. A major part of the population resides in the flat and low-lying coastal plain in the North. Tropical rainforests and mangrove forests, once extensively covering Java, disappeared to make place for infrastructure, palm oil, rice fields and aquaculture. Despite not being exposed to intensive natural hazards, such as tsunamis and hurricanes, Northern Javanese coastlines are vulnerable to sea level rise and subsidence (Chaussard, Amelung et al. 2013, van Wesenbeeck, Balke et al. 2015). Ground water extraction for fresh water provisioning is posing a threat to coastline integrity in several cities along the North coast. Consequently, adjacent rural areas start to subside over larger coastal stretches. With little resources for coastal infrastructure this subsidence results in flooding and erosion, challenging the adaptive capacity of coastal communities. This study assesses coastal flood risk for North Java, by considering both exposure and hazards, with the aim to facilitate strategic planning and focus coastal zone management by highlighting areas with high risk levels.

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Bahasa

English

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NONE

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Pernyataan Tanggungjawab

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